Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.043506 0.050071 0.056914 0.064548 0.072796 0.081409 0.091054
2025-04-13 0.031841 0.041155 0.051530 0.063792 0.077744 0.092989 0.110774
2025-04-20 0.027157 0.038531 0.051870 0.068310 0.087692 0.109508 0.135622
2025-04-27 0.021068 0.033050 0.047874 0.066915 0.090127 0.116968 0.149831
2025-05-04 0.018059 0.030832 0.047339 0.069232 0.096594 0.128857 0.168992
2025-05-11 0.014622 0.027460 0.044860 0.068721 0.099301 0.136054 0.182481
2025-05-18 0.012766 0.025996 0.044640 0.070889 0.105184 0.146993 0.200405
2025-05-25 0.011063 0.024478 0.044134 0.072515 0.110266 0.156897 0.217077
2025-06-01 0.008703 0.021521 0.041273 0.070700 0.110700 0.160880 0.226415
2025-06-08 0.006776 0.018913 0.038629 0.068933 0.110997 0.164546 0.235256
2025-06-15 0.005963 0.018151 0.038680 0.070894 0.116219 0.174456 0.251893
2025-06-22 0.005066 0.017055 0.038088 0.071841 0.120018 0.182528 0.266245
2025-06-29 0.004487 0.016580 0.038583 0.074585 0.126601 0.194646 0.286321
2025-07-06 0.003502 0.015006 0.037128 0.074365 0.129112 0.201557 0.299977
2025-07-13 0.003390 0.015444 0.039145 0.079478 0.139171 0.218503 0.326613
2025-07-20 0.002475 0.013610 0.036970 0.077976 0.139788 0.222914 0.337153
2025-07-27 0.002147 0.013239 0.037396 0.080532 0.146204 0.235079 0.357765
2025-08-03 0.001586 0.011944 0.035940 0.079972 0.148050 0.241082 0.370381
2025-08-10 0.001352 0.011613 0.036306 0.082356 0.154199 0.252926 0.390676
2025-08-17 0.001110 0.011139 0.036330 0.084142 0.159459 0.263577 0.409449
2025-08-24 0.000705 0.009702 0.034188 0.082148 0.158987 0.266307 0.417729
2025-08-31 0.000413 0.008414 0.032163 0.080206 0.158482 0.268918 0.425805
2025-09-07 0.000328 0.008190 0.032490 0.082362 0.164219 0.280214 0.445482